Michael Houben: Traditional State powers are beatable

• Every under-16 boys player competing at the 2025 National Championships
• Every under-16 girls player competing at the 2025 National Championships
• Complete guide to 2025 Under-16 Nationals in Bendigo

After six days of play, the pool games at the 2025 Under-16 Australian Junior Championships are done and dusted, and now we’re finals bound.

So far, it’s been an event dominated by Australia’s powerhouses, with Queensland South and Victoria Metro topping both sides of the competition — finishing unbeaten.

Under-16 Boys Tournament

On the boys side, Queensland South have been fantastic to lead Pool A — led from the front by Jordan Kaesler. The point guard has been, by a large margin, the most polished player in the competition, slicing up defenses on the other end with his dribble-drive prowess, standing far out in front as the competition's leading scorer.

He’s a problem that South Australia Metro are lined up to try and solve tomorrow at 4pm. SA went 2-3 across the week, just sneaking into the quarter finals — they’re an underdog, but have nothing to lose.

The other 1 vs 4 matchup pits Victoria Metro against New South Wales Metro. NSW Metro had an uncharacteristically weaker showing in the pool games compared to their country counterparts — are they yet to show their best? They’ll be relying on Cooper Hansen to fill it up offensively, the scoring leader at the national junior classic, along with post-man Luka Stevanovic. The Vic’s are tough as always, with a deep roster top to bottom, but both Tasmania and New South Wales Country took them down to the wire, so while unbeaten, they are fallible. They also match up at 4pm.

The 2 vs 3 matchups are naturally more unpredictable — Victoria Country went a convincing 4 wins and 1 loss across pool play, losing only to Queensland South in their opening game, and stand as favourites against Western Australia Metro. Kobe Birch has been a problem for the Westerners averaging 17 points a game — could he be the key to getting them over the hump? This one tips off at 6pm.

The last one is the toughest to pick — New South Wales Country versus West Australia Metro. NSW Country have been somewhat of a revelation this tournament, losing only to Victoria Metro thus far in a tight contest. They’re tough, smart and have a deep roster of contributors. Western Australia Metro had a mixed bag of results throughout pool play, but looked utterly convincing in their wins — if you let them play their game, they’re a tough matchup. They match up at 6pm.

Under-16 Girls Tournament

It’s a similar story on the girls side, with Victoria Metro facing little resistance in Pool A, finishing with a dominant percentage of 250%. Tasmania are the unfortunate team to find themselves matched up against them early. It will be an uphill battle, but the Taswegian aren't without firepower — Brydee Mcpherson has put her name on the map this tournament, the top female scorer in the competition with an average of 18 points a game, scoring inside and out. This one’s at 12pm.

The other 1 v 4 matchup sees Queensland South face off against Western Australia Metro. The loss-less Queenslanders have dominated the glass thanks to Jay Sebasio and Maddison Reisinger. They face a balanced WA Metro squad that finished with two wins and three losses. 12pm tip.

The 2 vs 3 face-offs include New South Wales Metro pitted against West Australia Country, and New South Wales Country against Queensland North.

Safe forecasts would predict two inevitable Vic Metro/Queensland South matchups by Sunday, but all we need is one upset to shake up proceedings.

We’ll be one step closer to finding out after Friday.